Short Term Duck Egg Price Prediction in Blitar City Using ARIMA
Abstract
Eggs are an essential food commodity for all segments of society, making price stability crucial as it affects consumers’ purchasing power and the economic welfare of farmers. Duck eggs, in particular, tend to experience price fluctuations due to imbalances between high demand and limited supply, along with other contributing factors. This study aims to forecast short-term duck egg prices using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. The data were collected from Blitar City, which is known as the highest egg-producing region in East Java. The results show a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 5.39%, indicating good predictive accuracy. Based on the model, the average predicted price of duck eggs is expected to range from IDR 1,900 to IDR 2,075 in the upcoming period.
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